Monday, October 12

3 games. Picks update until puck drop, and the last one before each game counts. Updated 1:33 PM.

Season record

2–1

66.7% correct

Brier score

0.155

market 0.214, lower is better

Value bets (3%+ edge)

+0.8u

2 bets, ROI +41.8%

Line moved our way

+0.6%

from our first read to the close

Today

Our pick's win chance next to the betting market's (vig removed).

TimeGameOur pickMarketEdgeConfidence

Live FLA@BUF BUF 53% 51% +0.8% Lean

FLAPanthers48%

1:00 PM

BUFSabres52%

Overview

Our pickBUF 51.9%

Lean

Market has BUF at 51.1% (-105 / -115, ESPN/DraftKings close)
Edge +0.8%

locked Pick at puck drop: BUF 52.8%. That's the one graded.

Why: BUF finishing edge; BUF goalie edge

FLA

PhysicalPenalty-pronePP-dependent offense

Strong recent play: 60.2% xGF% over last 10
Special-teams edge (+0.18 vs -0.05 net xG/gm)
M. Tkachuk is hot: 4-game point streak
Takes a lot of penalties
Goalie gap: Jacob Markstrom (-0.19) vs Colten Ellis (+0.01)

BUF

Rush team

PDO 904: due for better bounces
Goalie edge: Colten Ellis (+0.01 GSAx/gm)
Home ice
Special teams trail (-0.05 vs +0.18 net xG/gm)

Stats

Turn on Pies in the top bar to compare these stats as pie charts.

5v5 xGF%FLA 51.6% vs BUF 50.3%

5v5 Corsi%FLA 52.3% vs BUF 51.1%

Faceoff %FLA 47.1% vs BUF 47.2%

Power play %FLA 3.6% vs BUF 5.9%

Penalty kill %FLA 77.3% vs BUF 62.5%

Last-10 xGF%FLA 60.2% vs BUF 50.8%

Goals for / gameFLA 1.80 vs BUF 2.20

Goalie save %FLA 0.916 vs BUF 0.880
Jacob Markstrom vs Colten Ellis

FLA		BUF
Jacob MarkstromConfirmed4 GS, 0.916 sv%, last 5: 0.916	Starting goalie	Colten EllisConfirmed2 GS, 0.880 sv%, last 5: 0.880
2-1-2	Record	2-3-0
51.6%	5v5 xGF%	50.3%
-0.19	Starting goalie GSAx/gm	+0.01
52.3%	5v5 Corsi%	51.1%
60.2%	Last-10 5v5 xGF%	50.8%
+0.18	Special-teams net xG/gm	-0.05
3.6%	Power play %	5.9%
77.3%	Penalty kill %	62.5%
47.1%	Faceoff %	47.2%
1.80	Goals for / gm	2.20
2.40	Goals against / gm	3.80
42.9%	GF%	36.7%
-0.11	Finishing (G−xG)/gm	+0.07
962⚠ running cold	PDO	904⚠ running cold
2	Rest days	2
none	Regulars out	none

Games played: FLA 5, BUF 5. Early in the season the model leans on last year's numbers (blend weight GP/(GP+20)).

Players

FLA

Player	G-A-P	L5	G−xG	Style and form
M. Tkachuk F 5 GP, 21.0 min, 27% sh	3-1-4	4	+1.2	Net-frontVolume shooter🔥 4-game point streak
S. Bennett F 5 GP, 20.4 min, 0% sh	0-3-3	3	-1.5	Volume shooter
L. Eller F 5 GP, 13.8 min, 0% sh	0-3-3	3	-0.5
C. Verhaeghe F 5 GP, 18.7 min, 14% sh	1-1-2	2	-0.4	Volume shooter
S. Jones D 5 GP, 26.8 min, 8% sh	1-0-1	1	+0.1	Playmaker

BUF

Player	G-A-P	L5	G−xG	Style and form
O. Power D 5 GP, 26.0 min, 20% sh	1-4-5	5	+0.5
T. Thompson F 5 GP, 19.8 min, 10% sh	3-2-5	5	-0.1	Volume shooter
R. Dahlin D 5 GP, 26.5 min, 7% sh	1-2-3	3	+0.0	Playmaker
N. Ostlund F 5 GP, 18.2 min, 7% sh	1-2-3	3	-1.3
M. Samuelsson D 5 GP, 20.2 min, 17% sh	1-1-2	2	+0.8

G−xG is goals minus individual expected goals this season. Big positive numbers tend to cool off; big negatives tend to bounce back.

7:00 PM OTT@NJD OTT 52% 47% +4.8% Lean

OTTSenators52%

7:00 PM

NJDDevils48%

Overview

Our pickOTT 52.2%

Lean

Market has OTT at 47.4% (+102 / -122, ESPN/DraftKings)
Edge +4.8% value

Why: OTT finishing edge; OTT 5v5 xGF% edge; OTT goalie edge

OTT

Quality-first chancesPhysicalPenalty-proneStingy defense

NJD missing Connor Brown, Nick Bjugstad
T. Stützle is hot: 8 pts in last 5
Controls 5v5 play: 53.4% xGF% vs 50.5%
Missing regulars: Artem Zub, Cameron Crotty
PDO 1029: results running ahead of play
Takes a lot of penalties

NJD

High-volume shootingDisciplined

OTT missing Artem Zub, Cameron Crotty
Strong recent play: 55.6% xGF% over last 10
PDO 938: due for better bounces
Missing regulars: Connor Brown, Nick Bjugstad
Out-chanced at 5v5: 50.5% xGF% vs 53.4%

Stats

Turn on Pies in the top bar to compare these stats as pie charts.

5v5 xGF%OTT 53.4% vs NJD 50.5%

5v5 Corsi%OTT 51.0% vs NJD 52.6%

Faceoff %OTT 53.1% vs NJD 49.4%

Power play %OTT 12.5% vs NJD 22.2%

Penalty kill %OTT 78.3% vs NJD 63.6%

Last-10 xGF%OTT 50.8% vs NJD 55.6%

Goals for / gameOTT 2.80 vs NJD 2.50

Goalie save %OTT 0.942 vs NJD 0.812
Linus Ullmark vs Nico Daws

OTT		NJD
Linus UllmarkConfirmed4 GS, 0.942 sv%, last 5: 0.942	Starting goalie	Nico DawsConfirmed1 GS, 0.812 sv%, last 5: 0.812
4-1-0	Record	2-2-0
53.4%	5v5 xGF%	50.5%
-0.05	Starting goalie GSAx/gm	-0.09
51.0%	5v5 Corsi%	52.6%
50.8%	Last-10 5v5 xGF%	55.6%
+0.05	Special-teams net xG/gm	+0.06
12.5%	Power play %	22.2%
78.3%	Penalty kill %	63.6%
53.1%	Faceoff %	49.4%
2.80	Goals for / gm	2.50
2.20	Goals against / gm	3.50
56.0%	GF%	41.7%
0.00	Finishing (G−xG)/gm	-0.17
1029⚠ running hot	PDO	938⚠ running cold
2	Rest days	2
2 · 37 minArtem Zub (Injured Reserve), Cameron Crotty (Injured Reserve)	Regulars out	2 · 31 minConnor Brown (Injured Reserve), Nick Bjugstad (Injured Reserve)

Games played: OTT 5, NJD 4. Early in the season the model leans on last year's numbers (blend weight GP/(GP+20)).

Players

OTT

Player	G-A-P	L5	G−xG	Style and form
T. Stützle F 5 GP, 21.9 min, 36% sh	4-4-8	8	+2.1	Sniper🔥 8 pts in last 5
S. Pinto F 5 GP, 19.9 min, 0% sh	0-4-4	4	-1.5
D. Batherson F 5 GP, 17.2 min, 25% sh	3-1-4	4	+1.4	SniperRush threat
T. Chabot D 5 GP, 27.1 min, 7% sh	1-2-3	3	+0.2	PlaymakerShot-blocker
C. Giroux F 5 GP, 17.2 min, 0% sh	0-3-3	3	-0.6	Playmaker

NJD

Player	G-A-P	L5	G−xG	Style and form
J. Hughes F 4 GP, 21.2 min, 7% sh	1-3-4	4	-1.2	Volume shooter
J. Bratt F 4 GP, 18.1 min, 7% sh	1-3-4	4	-0.6
N. Hischier F 4 GP, 20.1 min, 22% sh	2-1-3	3	+0.3
L. Evangelista F injured 4 GP, 18.6 min, 17% sh	2-1-3	3	+0.5	Volume shooterPlaymaker
L. Hughes D 4 GP, 23.8 min, 8% sh	1-1-2	2	+0.2	Playmaker

G−xG is goals minus individual expected goals this season. Big positive numbers tend to cool off; big negatives tend to bounce back.

8:00 PM VGK@MIN VGK 58% 50% +8.8% Solid

VGKGolden Knights58%

8:00 PM

MINWild42%

Overview

Our pickVGK 58.4%

Solid

Market has VGK at 49.6% (-108 / -112, ESPN/DraftKings)
Edge +8.8% value

Why: VGK 5v5 xGF% edge; VGK special-teams edge; VGK recent-form edge

VGK

Quality-first chancesNet-front / reboundsDisciplinedStingy defense

Strong recent play: 61.4% xGF% over last 10
Special-teams edge (+0.25 vs +0.02 net xG/gm)
MIN missing Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno
Goalie gap: Carter Hart (+0.02) vs Jesper Wallstedt (+0.24)
Starter not confirmed (Carter Hart projected)

MIN

Net-front / rebounds

K. Kaprizov is hot: 8 pts in last 5
Q. Hughes is hot: 5-game point streak
J. Spurgeon is hot: 5-game point streak
Special teams trail (+0.02 vs +0.25 net xG/gm)
Missing regulars: Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno
Out-chanced at 5v5: 51.1% xGF% vs 54.8%

Stats

Turn on Pies in the top bar to compare these stats as pie charts.

5v5 xGF%VGK 54.8% vs MIN 51.1%

5v5 Corsi%VGK 52.9% vs MIN 49.0%

Faceoff %VGK 51.7% vs MIN 53.1%

Power play %VGK 30.4% vs MIN 37.5%

Penalty kill %VGK 81.2% vs MIN 94.1%

Last-10 xGF%VGK 61.4% vs MIN 50.1%

Goals for / gameVGK 3.67 vs MIN 3.00

Goalie save %VGK 0.910 vs MIN 0.936
Carter Hart vs Jesper Wallstedt

VGK		MIN
Carter HartUnconfirmed4 GS, 0.910 sv%, last 5: 0.910	Starting goalie	Jesper WallstedtConfirmed5 GS, 0.936 sv%, last 5: 0.936
5-1-0	Record	3-1-1
54.8%	5v5 xGF%	51.1%
+0.02	Starting goalie GSAx/gm	+0.24
52.9%	5v5 Corsi%	49.0%
61.4%	Last-10 5v5 xGF%	50.1%
+0.25	Special-teams net xG/gm	+0.02
30.4%	Power play %	37.5%
81.2%	Penalty kill %	94.1%
51.7%	Faceoff %	53.1%
3.67	Goals for / gm	3.00
2.33	Goals against / gm	1.80
61.1%	GF%	62.5%
-0.02	Finishing (G−xG)/gm	-0.01
1014	PDO	1039⚠ running hot
2	Rest days	2
none	Regulars out	2 · 24 minMarcus Foligno (Out), Nick Foligno (Injured Reserve)

Games played: VGK 6, MIN 5. Early in the season the model leans on last year's numbers (blend weight GP/(GP+20)).

Players

VGK

Player	G-A-P	L5	G−xG	Style and form
M. Stone F 6 GP, 19.4 min, 21% sh	3-4-7	6	+0.8	Net-frontSniper🔥 4-game point streak🔥 6 pts in last 5
J. Eichel F 6 GP, 21.3 min, 17% sh	3-9-12	9	+0.8	Volume shooterPlaymaker🔥 9 pts in last 5
V. Olofsson F 4 GP, 13.1 min, 44% sh	4-1-5	5	+2.9	Volume shooter🔥 4-game point streak
M. Marner F 6 GP, 21.1 min, 11% sh	2-3-5	5	-0.1
T. Hertl F 6 GP, 16.0 min, 18% sh	3-2-5	5	-0.9	Net-frontVolume shooter

MIN

Player	G-A-P	L5	G−xG	Style and form
K. Kaprizov F 5 GP, 21.6 min, 46% sh	6-2-8	8	+4.3	Volume shooter🔥 8 pts in last 5⚖ scoring +4.3 above expected, likely to cool
Q. Hughes D 5 GP, 27.5 min, 12% sh	2-5-7	7	+0.9	Playmaker🔥 5-game point streak🔥 7 pts in last 5
J. Spurgeon D 5 GP, 22.1 min, 17% sh	1-4-5	5	+0.9	Shot-blocker🔥 5-game point streak
M. Shabanov F 5 GP, 15.5 min, 17% sh	1-2-3	3	+0.1
B. Coleman F 5 GP, 15.2 min, 18% sh	2-1-3	3	+0.6	Volume shooterRush threat

G−xG is goals minus individual expected goals this season. Big positive numbers tend to cool off; big negatives tend to bounce back.

Yesterday

2–1 on our picks

SEA 5, WSH 3 Picked WSH 60% Lost

VAN 2, NYR 6 Picked NYR 78% Won

CAR 4, PHI 1 Picked CAR 76% Won

Monday, October 12

Today

Overview

FLA

BUF

Stats

Players

FLA

BUF

Charts

Against the league

Overview

OTT

NJD

Stats

Players

OTT

NJD

Charts

Against the league

Overview

VGK

MIN

Stats

Players

VGK

MIN

Charts

Against the league

Yesterday