Week 5

1 game to play, 14 final. Picks update with QB, injury and line news until kickoff, and the last one counts. Updated Mon 1:33 PM.

Season record

No graded live picks yet

Live tracking started in week 5.

Still to play

Our pick's win chance next to the betting market's (vig removed).

Where we disagree with the spread, the gap between the bars is our edge in points.

KickoffGameOur pickMarginSpread pickConfidence

Mon 8:15 PM BUF@LA LA 60% LA by 2.8 BUF +3.5 Solid

BUFBuffalo Bills40%

Mon 8:15 PM

LALos Angeles Rams60%

Overview

Our pickLA 60%

Solid

Our marginLA by 2.8

Spread pickBUF +3.5

Covers 52% of the time by our numbers.
Edge 0.7 pts

Market: LA -3.5, LA wins 61% (+145 / -175, ESPN/DraftKings). Win-chance edge -0.9%

Why: LA QB edge; LA offensive success-rate edge; LA passing offense edge

BUF

Big-play offenseSoft run D

Run game matchup: BUF run offense 0.12 EPA/play better than average, LA run defense 0.03 better than average
Special teams edge (-0.2 vs -1.7 EPA a game)
James Cook: TD in 3 straight
Missing Joshua Palmer (WR)
QB gap: Josh Allen vs Matthew Stafford

LA

Pass-heavyTurnover-pronePenalty-proneStingy pass D

Run game matchup: LA run offense 0.06 EPA/play better than average, BUF run defense 0.07 worse than average
QB edge: Matthew Stafford (+0.14 EPA/dropback) vs Josh Allen (+0.08)
Matthew Stafford: 300+ yards in 3 straight
Missing Terrance Ferguson (TE), Myles Garrett (DE)

Stats

Turn on Pies in the top bar to compare these stats as pie charts.

Offense success rateBUF 46.9% vs LA 47.7%

Defensive stop rateBUF 54.5% vs LA 57.4%
plays held to no success

Third-down rateBUF 48.7% vs LA 40.7%

Explosive-play rateBUF 11.9% vs LA 10.2%

Points per gameBUF 28.60 vs LA 25.05

BUF play mixPass 59% vs Run 41%

LA play mixPass 64% vs Run 36%

BUF		LA
Josh Allen4 GP, +0.24 EPA/dropback, CPOE +5.0	Starting QBrating +0.075 / +0.141	Matthew Stafford4 GP, +0.08 EPA/dropback, CPOE -0.1
3-1	Record	2-2
+0.125	Offense EPA/play	+0.085
+0.028	Defense EPA/play allowed	-0.034
+0.167	Pass offense EPA/play	+0.134
+0.061	Rush offense EPA/play	-0.003
+0.032	Pass defense EPA/play	+0.004
+0.019	Run defense EPA/play	-0.090
46.9%	Offense success rate	47.7%
45.5%	Defense success rate allowed	42.6%
+4.4	Point differential/game	+3.6
28.6	Points for/game	25.0
24.2	Points against/game	21.4
-0.18	Special teams EPA/game	-1.70
-0.20	Turnover margin/game	-0.22
-0.08	Fumble luck/game	-0.21
8	Rest days	8
Joshua Palmer WR, Out Ed Oliver DT, Out	Out or doubtful	Terrance Ferguson TE, Injured Reserve Myles Garrett DE, Injured Reserve

Games played: BUF 4, LA 4. Early in the season ratings lean on last year (blend weight games/(games+6)). Indoors.

Players

BUF

Player	Season so far	Style and form
Josh Allen QB 4 games	79/119, 1039 yds, 6 TD, 3 INT, +0.27 EPA/dropback	Deep-ball passerScrambler
Khalil Shakir WR 4 games	15/23 for 176 yds, 0 TD, 20% of targets	YAC threat
DJ Moore WR 4 games	12/20 for 178 yds, 1 TD, 18% of targets	Deep threat
Dalton Kincaid TE 4 games	15/19 for 270 yds, 1 TD, 17% of targets	Deep threatYAC threat
James Cook RB 4 games	70 car, 421 yds (6.0/car), 3 TD, 6 rec	Bell-cowHome-run hitter🔥 TD in 3 straight

LA

Player	Season so far	Style and form
Matthew Stafford QB 4 games	99/162, 1189 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT, +0.08 EPA/dropback	Deep-ball passerTurnover-prone🔥 300+ yards in 3 straight
Davante Adams WR 4 games	22/38 for 390 yds, 2 TD, 25% of targets	Deep threatTarget hog
Puka Nacua WR 2 games	14/21 for 199 yds, 0 TD, 29% of targets	YAC threatTarget hog
Tyler Higbee TE 3 games	15/19 for 141 yds, 1 TD, 14% of targets	Possession
Kyren Williams RB 4 games	54 car, 294 yds (5.4/car), 4 TD, 21 rec	Receiving back🔥 100+ yards in 2 straight

Style tags compare each player with everyone at his position over this season and last: "Deep threat" means top quarter of the league in air yards per target.

Final this week

0–0 straight up, 0–0 against the spread

Game	Final	Our pick
TB at DAL	24–16	Before live tracking started.
PHI at JAX	17–19	Before live tracking started.
CHI at GB	7–31	Before live tracking started.
CIN at MIA	31–24	Before live tracking started.
CLE at NYJ	12–17	Before live tracking started.
HOU at TEN	26–3	Before live tracking started.
IND at PIT	22–34	Before live tracking started.
LV at NE	17–45	Before live tracking started.
MIN at NO	23–13	Before live tracking started.
NYG at WAS	27–27	Before live tracking started.
DEN at LAC	23–17	Before live tracking started.
DET at ARI	45–21	Before live tracking started.
SF at SEA	32–29	Before live tracking started.
BAL at ATL	30–23	Before live tracking started.